Dodge Challenger 500

[Maxx40]

YTD Totals

+12.15 units (Cup Match-Ups)
+07.60 units (N'wide Match-Ups)
- 10.04 units (Props/Outrights)

Total: + 9.71 units

Stepping out early on a few plays this week.

Outrights

1.50 units Dale Earnhardt Jr. (15 to 2) @bodog
Looking for an end to the two year drought. Jr has always ran well at Darlington, can't remember the last time he finished outside of the Top 10 or 12. Has an even stronger team this year than in the past. The top echelon teams at Hendrick( the 24 & 48) combined have only one finish outside the Top 4 since 2004(@Darlington). Jeff Gordon was one of three Cup teams to test the new surface at Darlington which will be a big advantage for all Hendrick teams.
What happened last week at Richmond will only drive this team more.

1.50 units Denny Hamlin (13 to 2) (@bodog)
This guy has been very strong the past five weeks. With any luck at all he would have three wins instead of one. Was dominant at Richmond last week leading all but 20-something laps before the tire went down and at Bristol he had the fuel pick-up problem while leading with two to go.

Hamlin has never finished outside the Top 10 at Darlington in the Cup Series or the Nationwide Series.

0.50 unit Greg Biffle (14 to 1) (@bodog)
0.50 unit Ryan Newman (28 to 1) (@bodog)
A couple of reasons for these plays. They both tested at Darlington and they both have good history here.
Biffle won back-to-back in 2005-2006, Newman has placed in the Top 6 in four of the last five here.


Four units is a lot more than I normally spend on outrights, and I've had rotten luck trying to pick race winners. Maybe that changes this week.

 

[nascarphenom]

I am not touching this race until after all the practices and qualifying are over. With the new car a new paved track, you can almost throw all previous track history out the window.

I am going very very small this week, but it should be a hell of a race to watch! Maxx is right with his theory....Jr and Hamlin are both hungry for those wins that have slipped away.

Darlington is always fun to watch and racing under the lights always makes it better!

 

[Maxx40]

phenom, understand where you're coming. i'm a little uneasy about playing so early because its not the way i usually do it, but i will be at the track most of the weekend and didn't know if i could get to the computer, but i couldn't see me changing these plays unless something drastic happened.

About past history, I still think it is maybe more important here than at any track in the series.

yeah, there is a new surface on the track and its ultra smooth and not abrasive at all like it use to be, but the characteristics of the track have not changed , just the speeds. they can talk set-ups all they want but this will still be a driver's track. you still have to ride the wall, know how to double turn in 1 and 2, get through the traffic on a very narrow track. you have to beat the lady before you beat the competition to survive here.

Darlington has made changes before but there are some guys that just have a knack for this place like pearson, waltrip, the earnhardts, gordon, johnson and albeit a short history, hamlin. thay always seem to finish well no matter the circumstances.

it should be a very good race and going better than 200 down the straights at Darlington should be fun to watch. this place is special and i don't think i'm biased because i'm a Darlington native.

congrats on an excellent season so far. best of luck this weekend.

 

[Maxx40]

adding these plays for tonight:

Not much time before heading to the track but here goes:

Match-Ups

3.00 units Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-110) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
As stated earlier I really like Jr. tonight, practice and qualifying did nothing to change that. Busch can be wreckers or checkers tonight, who knows with that guy.

3.00 units Ryan Newman (-140) over David Ragan (@sportsbook)
Surprised at the qualifying effort by Newman, hopefully he won't get caught up in something as he moves up through traffic. Ragan is constantly improving but like the experience advantage of Newman in this match-up as well as his ability to get around here 4th, 6th and 5th the last three races at Darlington.

2.00 units Clint Bowyer (-110) over Matt Kenseth (@bodog)
Both teams struggling this weekend but Kenseth is really, really off. The 17 qualifies 34th and in four practice sessions he was 33rd, 45th,42nd and 37th. To add to that his last three race results are all 38th or worse. Bowyer does have seven straight Top 10 race finishes.

Props

2.00 units Ryan Newman (+325) to win group (@thegreek)
over Ku.Busch/Burton/Harvick/Kenseth

2.00 units Denny Hamlin (-115) to finish better than 8.5 (@sportsbook)

2.00 units Jeff Gordon (+100) to finish better than 9.5 (@sportsbook)

Good luck to everyone

 

[nascarphenom]

adding these plays for tonight:

Not much time before heading to the track but here goes:

Match-Ups

3.00 units Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-110) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
As stated earlier I really like Jr. tonight, practice and qualifying did nothing to change that. Busch can be wreckers or checkers tonight, who knows with that guy.

3.00 units Ryan Newman (-140) over David Ragan (@sportsbook)
Surprised at the qualifying effort by Newman, hopefully he won't get caught up in something as he moves up through traffic. Ragan is constantly improving but like the experience advantage of Newman in this match-up as well as his ability to get around here 4th, 6th and 5th the last three races at Darlington.

2.00 units Clint Bowyer (-110) over Matt Kenseth (@bodog)
Both teams struggling this weekend but Kenseth is really, really off. The 17 qualifies 34th and in four practice sessions he was 33rd, 45th,42nd and 37th. To add to that his last three race results are all 38th or worse. Bowyer does have seven straight Top 10 race finishes.

Props

2.00 units Ryan Newman (+325) to win group (@thegreek)
over Ku.Busch/Burton/Harvick/Kenseth

2.00 units Denny Hamlin (-115) to finish better than 8.5 (@sportsbook)

2.00 units Jeff Gordon (+100) to finish better than 9.5 (@sportsbook)

Good luck to everyone

I like every single one of those plays! Have a good time at the race Maxx!

 

[grinin]

1.5 units Jeff Gordon ov Stewart +125
2 units Biff ov Stewart +110
0.75 unit J Gordo ov Dale Jr. +140

 

[grinin]

0.7 unit Sadler ov Kahne, Kenseth, mears, Ragan +500

 

[Maxx40]

that was a total wipe out, now its back to step one. in the red for the first time after dropping 11+ plus units(-1.99 ytd). will start over at Charlotte.